The Less You Know About Something, the More Certain You Might Be That You're an Expert

It would seem logical that the less someone knows, the more aware of that they'd be. Psychology shows the opposite is often true.

People with low competence in a given field frequently overrate their own abilities the most — because the very ignorance that causes their mistakes also prevents them from recognizing those mistakes.

In other words: noticing you're bad at something requires at least a minimal level of competence in it — and the lack of that competence produces a false, comfortable confidence instead.

As someone actually starts learning a field, their confidence often drops first — because that's when they finally see the sheer scale of what they don't know — and only climbs back up much more slowly, alongside real experience.